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Are the Orthodox really increasing?

I am perplexed by this statement by Seth Mandel in "Orthodox Zionism and the future," which appeared in your June 4 issue: "The projected growth of the Orthodox community in America."

I am curious about where he finds support for this statement. The information I have seen does not support the idea that Orthodoxy is growing in America. Specifically, the 2000-2001 NJPS has the following data: as of that study, there were 297,000 Orthodox Jews over the age of 18 in the United States. While it is true that 57,000 of them were baalei teshuva (raised non-Orthodox but currently living an Orthodox life style), there were 347,000 Jews who were raised Orthodox but no longer living as such. In fact the chart with that data has the following title: "Among current Jews who were raised Jewish, identification with Orthodoxy has declined over time." And the following chart is titled "A majority of Jews who were raised Orthodox no longer consider themselves to be Orthodox." (See http://www.jewishfederations.org/local_includes/downloads/4983.pdf.)

In addition, the NJPS includes the following statement: "Anecdotal evidence of large number of baalei teshuva ... notwithstanding, relatively few Orthodox Jews claim to have been raised non-Orthodox." While the statement goes on to say that Orthodoxy "at least at the present" has begun to reverse previous patterns of defection, it says nothing about Orthodoxy growing.

I have heard the claim before that Orthodoxy is growing and even that its members are the dominant group of America's religious Jews (the NJPS shows that Orthodox Jews make up 13 percent of total Jews while liberal denominations -- Reform, Conservative, and Reconstructionist -- make up 62 percent). Don't we need to be accurate about such claims? If Mr. Mandel has some data to support his claims I would be very interested in seeing it.

Dave Mollen
Union

Seth Mandel responds: The data I used came from the March 2009 Synagogue 3000 study How Spiritual Are America's Jews? by Steven M. Cohen and Lawrence A. Hoffman. In a section titled "Shifting Composition of American Jews," the authors write the following:

"In moving from the elderly to the middle aged to those under 35, the proportion that is Orthodox grows from 5% to 6% to 15%. At the same time, the number of extended Jews-by-Choice grows from 9% to 17% to fully 28% of those under 35 years old. If these two groups grow, then the third group (non-Orthodox Jews with two Jewish parents) must shrink. Among those 65 and over in this study, fully 86% are in this category. But their number drops to 77% among those 35-64, and falls to just a slim majority (57%) among those under 35.

"The composition of the Jewish population has been shifting dramatically, and with it, the openness to, and interest in, things spiritual. The two population groups with higher levels of spiritual interests have been growing, while the once numerically dominant group with lower levels of such interest has been in demographic decline. The presence of more Orthodox Jews and more Jews of non-Jewish ancestry means more Jews culturally pre-disposed to spiritual concerns."

An open letter to Gov. Chris Christie

The May 31 predawn confrontation off Israel's coast between Israel's navy and a flotilla of six ships trying to break the maritime blockade off the coast of Gaza has drawn media and world attention, much of it anti-Israel. While saddened about the violence, injuries, and deaths suffered by passengers and Israelis that occurred aboard one of the six ships, the N.J. State Association of Jewish Federations considers it important to clarify the facts behind the incident.

Following the tragic incident, the outpouring of hateful rhetoric against Israel has apparently drowned out the actual events that occurred. The following rendition of the facts will update the events, provide informational background, and bring a greater understanding of the realities of the confrontation and Israel's right to defend itself in the face of multifaceted attempts to deligitimize its statehood and destroy its nationhood.

--Israel Defense Forces naval forces intercepted six ships attempting to break the naval blockade of the Gaza Strip. The interception took place after numerous warnings from Israel and the navy requesting the ships to redirect toward Ashdod port, to unload their cargo, which would be transferred to Gaza over land after security inspections. The IDF stressed that the passengers could then return to their point of departure on the same vessels.

--The activists were carrying 10,000 tons of reported aid to Gaza. Israel had pledged to deliver the humanitarian goods after the ships were inspected. Under Israeli policy, humanitarian aid must come through Israel and be checked by Israeli authorities who are looking to intercept smuggled weapons bound for militants aiming to attack Israel.

--Five ships were successfully and peacefully directed to Ashdod. During the interception of the sixth ship, the demonstrators attacked the IDF naval personnel with live gunfire and light weaponry including knives, crowbars, clubs, bottles, and hoses with streams of gushing water.

--Israeli commandos were prepared to use riot dispersal paintball guns if necessary. However, two violent activists grabbed pistols from naval forces and opened fire on them. Only after determining they were in immediate danger did Israelis act in self-defense. Unfortunately, the danger created by the armed passengers resulted in an Israeli defensive riot dispersal response and the nine deaths and numerous injuries to both activists and Israeli naval personnel.

--All of the injured Israelis and foreigners were evacuated by a fleet of IDF helicopters to hospitals in Israel.

--The "humanitarian" activists' peaceful intentions are undermined by the fact that they refused to deliver any aid to Gilad Shalit, the longtime imprisoned kidnapped Israeli soldier, and the peaceful prayer they proffered for their voyage, "death to the Jews."

--Subsequent to the attack, IDF forces unloaded the humanitarian cargo from the Gaza flotilla and transferred the aid to the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom crossing, as promised. It's important to note that despite reports to the contrary, Israel supplies Gaza with 15,000 tons of aid, weekly. All told, more than a quarter million tons of medicine, food, and other supplies have already moved from Israel to Gaza. Most recently, it was reported that Hamas, which controls the territory, has refused to accept the cargo.

--The IDF naval operation was carried out under orders from the political leadership to halt the flotilla from reaching the Gaza Strip and breaching the naval blockade.

--Hamas, a terrorist organization with close ties to Iran, controls Gaza and has launched thousands of missiles into Israel, since the Jewish state evacuated this land four years ago in an attempt to bring forth peace between Jews and Palestinians. Hamas is a terrorist organization committed to Israel's destruction.

There was no violence on five of the six ships. Only one ship sought a violent confrontation to promote an international incident to discredit Israel. The evidence suggests that Israel acted in a way to avoid violence.

Hamas has launched thousands of rockets into Israel causing civilian deaths and has committed violent acts of terrorism over the years. It is understandable why Israel is within its rights to prevent delivery of materials through Gaza confirmed smuggling avenues.

The international reaction to the incident has the appearance of a rush to judgment against Israel. It is unfair to make unfounded allegations against Israel before all the facts of the incident have been gathered. As the above stated facts point out, the brutalization of the truth serves no constructive purpose other than to promote unwarranted fear and anger toward Israel, the intended result sought by the runners of the blockade.

Jacob Toporek, executive director
N.J. State Association of Jewish Federations